Germany’s Conservative Bloc Wins Election, Faces Tough Coalition Talks

Germany’s CDU/CSU conservative alliance has claimed victory in the national elections but now faces the challenge of forming a stable government in a highly fragmented political landscape.

With as many as seven parties likely to secure seats in parliament, the CDU/CSU—projected to receive just under 30% of the vote—will need to build a coalition to govern. However, forming a majority government will be difficult, as all parties have ruled out any alliance with the far-right AfD, despite its strong showing.

Potential Coalition Scenarios

1️⃣ Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU & SPD)

• A partnership between CDU/CSU and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left SPD has historically been a go-to option, having governed together four times before.

• However, early projections suggest they would fall short of a 316-seat majority, unless smaller parties like the pro-business FDP or left-wing BSW fail to enter parliament.

• The two parties also have significant policy differences—CDU/CSU wants tax cuts, while SPD favors tax hikes for high-income earners.

• Probability: 60% (Eurasia Group)

2️⃣ Kenya Coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD & Greens)

• If FDP and BSW reach the 5% threshold, a three-party coalition may be necessary, combining CDU/CSU, SPD, and the Greens.

• This coalition could reach 374 seats, securing a majority, but political differences—especially on migration and economic policies—could make negotiations difficult.

• CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz has also clashed with Green leader Robert Habeck, calling him a “failed” economy minister.

• Probability: 10%

3️⃣ Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD & FDP)

• A combination of CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP, reflecting the colors of the German flag, would just surpass the majority threshold with 326 seats.

• However, deep tensions between SPD and FDP—particularly over budget disagreements—make this scenario unlikely.

• Probability: 10%

4️⃣ Minority Government

• If coalition talks fail, Germany could see a minority government, where the ruling party negotiates support on a case-by-case basis.

• While this has happened at the state level, it has never been attempted at the start of a federal government due to concerns over instability.

• Merz has previously suggested this could be an option but has not commented on it recently.

What About the AfD?

• Despite securing 318 seats, which would mathematically allow the CDU/CSU to form a majority government with the far-right AfD, all parties have ruled out working with the AfD due to its controversial policies.

• AfD’s growing influence further complicates coalition-building and parliamentary negotiations.

Germany now faces potentially months of political uncertainty as coalition talks unfold, with no clear path to a stable government in sight.

See more in: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/germanys-conservatives-cdu-csu-declare-election-victory-hard-coalition-talks-next-7782767